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Updated 1 hr. ago

Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

Politics
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7 %

chance

▼ −1.1%1h▲ +1.4%24h
Yes 7¢No 93¢

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

4 outcomes
See all 4 outcomes

Total volume

$205.3K

24h vol.

$27.6K

1w vol.

$205.3K

1m vol.

$205.3K

Liquidity

$191.1K

Bid / Ask

6¢ / 7¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

6¢

Start date

Oct 12, 2026

End date

Nov 4, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
6¢$400
6¢$222
6¢$2,000
6¢$12,191
5¢$201
5¢$640
5¢$10,601
5¢$1,037
5¢$1,950
4¢$11,329
Asks (sell)Size
7¢$14
7¢$14
7¢$8,360
7¢$2,439
8¢$337
8¢$200
8¢$5,015
8¢$10,551
9¢$1,037
9¢$7,550

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✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 58%Sells 42%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 hr. agoSell6¢14
3 hr. agoBuy6¢14
3 hr. agoSell92¢200
3 hr. agoSell8¢200
3 hr. agoSell92¢88
3 hr. agoSell8¢78
3 hr. agoBuy92¢10
3 hr. agoSell6¢34
3 hr. agoBuy6¢4
3 hr. agoSell94¢30
3 hr. agoSell93¢178
3 hr. agoSell7¢178
3 hr. agoSell94¢200
3 hr. agoBuy94¢200
3 hr. agoBuy7¢200
3 hr. agoBuy93¢178
3 hr. agoSell7¢22
3 hr. agoSell94¢7
3 hr. agoBuy94¢7
3 hr. agoSell94¢95
3 hr. agoBuy94¢95
3 hr. agoSell94¢400
3 hr. agoBuy94¢400
3 hr. agoSell94¢400
3 hr. agoBuy94¢400
3 hr. agoSell94¢79
3 hr. agoSell6¢79
3 hr. agoSell4¢7
3 hr. agoSell96¢7
3 hr. agoBuy6¢140
3 hr. agoBuy94¢110
3 hr. agoBuy94¢30
3 hr. agoBuy5¢22,876
3 hr. agoBuy95¢2,001
3 hr. agoSell6¢9,000
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200
3 hr. agoBuy95¢320
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200
3 hr. agoBuy95¢20
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200
3 hr. agoSell5¢8,018
3 hr. agoSell5¢150
3 hr. agoSell5¢150
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200
3 hr. agoBuy95¢303
3 hr. agoSell5¢815
3 hr. agoSell5¢318
3 hr. agoBuy95¢200

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