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Updated 40 min. ago
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
86 %
chance
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
9 outcomesTotal volume
$90K
24h vol.
$34.6K
1w vol.
$90K
1m vol.
$90K
Liquidity
$36.6K
Bid / Ask
85¢ / 86¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
86¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Oct 29, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 2,000 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 90 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 400 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 5 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 1,000 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 505 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 7 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 12 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 12 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 349 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 349 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 7 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 7 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 10 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 10 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 7 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 7 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 4 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 4 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 67 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 67 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 35 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 35 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 8 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 8 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 63 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 63 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 6 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 6 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 28 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 28 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 687 |
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 17 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 253 |
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 12 |
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 6 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 400 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 3 |
| 6 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 3 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 155 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 61 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 94 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 1 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 1 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 1 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 1 |
| 10 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 10 |
| 10 hr. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 10 |
| 10 hr. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 12 |
◆ Smart money
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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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