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Updated 2 days ago

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?
91 %
chance
Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale
6 outcomesTotal volume
$5.5K
24h vol.
$2.9K
1w vol.
$5.6K
1m vol.
$5.6K
Liquidity
$4.3K
Bid / Ask
90¢ / 92¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
90¢
Start date
Oct 16, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 days ago | Sell | 80¢ | 8 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 80¢ | 8 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 81¢ | 12 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 81¢ | 12 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 90¢ | 51 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 15¢ | 2 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 86¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 19 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 10 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 35 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 19 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 16 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 12¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 10 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 10 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 112 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 54 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 58 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 23 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 3 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 19 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 19 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 16¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 82¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 18¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 78¢ | 299 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 199 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 78¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 77¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 0 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 23¢ | 10 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 23¢ | 10 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 77¢ | 50 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 23¢ | 30 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 23¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 78¢ | 301 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 201 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 22¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 23¢ | 21 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 23¢ | 21 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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