Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Market brief

• Down 3.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 24% on Oct 19, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 14 buys, 36 sells; the largest was $572 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 31% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,990 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 2,990 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 31.1% resolved YES. That is 5.1 points more often than their average price of 26.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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