Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Market brief

• Last 50 trades: 47 buys, 3 sells; the largest was $29 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (293 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 293 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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