← Dashboard · Culture
Updated 4 days ago
Will Luis Diaz finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Other
0 %
chance
▼ −5.0%1h▲ +0.0%24h
Yes 0¢No 100¢
Market brief
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (416 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
uses 1 credit
Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place
30 outcomes- Kylian Mbappé71 %
- Lamine Yamal16 %
- Harry Kane11 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1 %
- Lionel Messi1 %
- Dayot Upamecano1 %
- William Saliba1 %
- Ousmane Dembélé0 %
- Jude Bellingham0 %
- Nuno Mendes0 %
- Rodri0 %
- Fabian Ruiz0 %
- Erling Haaland0 %
- Pau Cubarsi0 %
- Marquinhos0 %
- Declan Rice0 %
- Vitinha0 %
- Ferran Torres0 %
- João Neves0 %
- Vinícius Júnior0 %
- Michael Olise0 %
- Gabriel Magalhães0 %
- Lautaro Martinez0 %
- Julián Quiñones0 %
- Bruno Fernandes0 %
- Sadio Mané0 %
- Willian Pacho0 %
- Achraf Hakimi0 %
- Marc Cucurella0 %
- Luis Diaz0 %
Total volume
$50
Liquidity
$4.7K
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Oct 19, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 416 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Bids (buy)Size
0¢$14
Asks (sell)Size
1¢$186
14¢$135
15¢$50
15¢$20
17¢$10
18¢$10
19¢$88
20¢$30
20¢$103
21¢$203
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (6)
Buys 64%Sells 36%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 6 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 6 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 20 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?77 %▲ +1.6%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?5 %▲ +0.9%
- Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?0 %▼ −0.2%
- Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?74 %▲ +3.0%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?2 %▼ −29.2%
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?1 %▼ −0.1%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.