Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Market brief

• Last 50 trades: 12 buys, 38 sells; the largest was $1K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 67% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (1,608 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,608 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 67.4% resolved YES. That is 5.3 points less often than their average price of 72.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

Related markets

The most-traded open Sports markets from other events.

• LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −81.5%
• LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −39.5%
• LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −65.5%
• Minnesota vs Orlando — Minnesota78 %▲ +23.0%
• Game 1: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee — Milwaukee63 %▲ +0.0%
• LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −71.5%

Keep exploring