Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place odds
Live implied probabilities across 30 outcomes · $232K traded · updated 1 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Kylian Mbappé leads at 71 % · biggest 24h move: Lamine Yamal +1.5 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1Kylian Mbappé71 %▲ +1.0%$49.8K
- 2Lamine Yamal14 %▲ +1.5%$70.4K
- 3Harry Kane11 %▼ −1.5%$16.2K
- 4Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1 %▲ +0.4%$13.6K
- 5Lionel Messi1 %▼ −1.4%$18.4K
- 6William Saliba1 %▼ −0.1%$97.41
- 7Dayot Upamecano1 %▼ −0.1%$97.41
- 8Ousmane Dembélé0 %▼ −0.3%$13.5K
- 9Rodri0 %▼ −0.7%$14.2K
- 10Jude Bellingham0 %—$930.316
- 11Nuno Mendes0 %—$97.41
- 12Fabian Ruiz0 %—$12.1K
Show all 30 outcomesShow fewer
- 13Erling Haaland0 %▼ −0.1%$855.991
- 14Pau Cubarsi0 %▼ −0.1%$10.5K
- 15Michael Olise0 %▼ −0.1%$7.8K
- 16Vinícius Júnior0 %▼ −0.2%$707.286
- 17Declan Rice0 %—$629.996
- 18Vitinha0 %—$1.3K
- 19Achraf Hakimi0 %—$105
- 20Bruno Fernandes0 %—$50
- 21Luis Diaz0 %—$50
- 22Lautaro Martinez0 %—$50
- 23Marc Cucurella0 %—$50
- 24Gabriel Magalhães0 %—$50
- 25Sadio Mané0 %—$50
- 26Marquinhos0 %—$50
- 27João Neves0 %—$133.73
- 28Willian Pacho0 %—$127.31
- 29Julián Quiñones0 %—$60
- 30Ferran Torres0 %—$127.31
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place?
- Kylian Mbappé is the current favourite at 71 %, ahead of 29 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.