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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Crypto
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69 %

chance

▼ −0.5%24h▲ +2.0%1W
Yes 69¢No 31¢

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

3 outcomes
See all 3 outcomes

Total volume

$201.5K

24h vol.

$411.439

1w vol.

$877.807

1m vol.

$4.1K

Liquidity

$19.1K

Bid / Ask

68¢ / 69¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

69¢

Start date

Dec 22, 2025

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
54¢$60
53¢$45
52¢$40
51¢$46
50¢$53
48¢$42
47¢$43
46¢$44
45¢$45
44¢$46
Asks (sell)Size
55¢$682
56¢$240
57¢$216
58¢$102
59¢$50
60¢$50
62¢$93
63¢$100
64¢$111
66¢$59

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 52%Sells 48%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoBuy55¢18
1 mo. agoSell55¢18
1 mo. agoSell54¢18
1 mo. agoBuy54¢18
1 mo. agoSell54¢11
1 mo. agoBuy54¢11
1 mo. agoSell54¢36
1 mo. agoBuy54¢36
1 mo. agoBuy54¢0
1 mo. agoBuy46¢9
1 mo. agoBuy54¢9
1 mo. agoBuy55¢10
1 mo. agoSell55¢10
1 mo. agoBuy54¢127
1 mo. agoSell54¢127
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5
1 mo. agoSell54¢5
1 mo. agoBuy54¢5

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Smart money is a Pro+ feature

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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