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Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 odds

Live implied probabilities across 3 outcomes · $945.6K traded · updated 2 days ago

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

S&P 500 leads at 69 % · biggest 24h move: Bitcoin −0.5 pp

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026?
S&P 500 is the current favourite at 69 %, ahead of 2 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
What do these odds actually mean?
Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
How often do these odds update?
Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
How to read the odds

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