What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? — odds by threshold
Cumulative probability across 30 thresholds · $69.6M traded · updated 3 days ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Each row is a cumulative probability. The prices are currently not consistent enough across steps to break them into per-step chances, so only the cumulative view is shown.
Rising to
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- ↑ 90,00059 %▲ +6.0%$2.4M
- ↑ 95,00038 %▲ +2.5%$971.7K
- ↑ 100,00025 %—$3.8M
- ↑ 110,00011 %▼ −1.0%$2M
- ↑ 120,0007 %—$2.2M
- ↑ 130,0003 %▼ −0.1%$2M
- ↑ 140,0003 %▼ −0.2%$1.4M
- ↑ 150,0003 %▼ −0.1%$1.3M
- ↑ 160,0002 %▼ −0.1%$725.9K
- ↑ 170,0001 %▼ −0.2%$479.9K
- ↑ 180,0001 %—$578.3K
- ↑ 190,0001 %▲ +0.1%$816K
Show all 16 outcomesShow fewer
Falling to
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- ↓ 70,00039 %▲ +1.0%$957.8K
- ↓ 65,00022 %▼ −2.5%$622.6K
- ↓ 60,00016 %—$1.2M
- ↓ 55,00010 %▲ +1.0%$6.8M
- ↓ 50,0008 %—$4.4M
- ↓ 45,0005 %▼ −1.0%$8.7M
- ↓ 40,0004 %▲ +0.3%$2.7M
- ↓ 35,0002 %▲ +0.2%$3.5M
- ↓ 30,0002 %—$924.8K
- ↓ 25,0001 %—$1.5M
- ↓ 20,0001 %—$636.8K
- ↓ 15,0001 %—$5.1M
Show all 14 outcomesShow fewer
Frequently asked questions
- What do these cumulative odds mean?
- Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
Related events
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.