Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 2, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers100¢▲ +62.5%2
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 4, 2026?96¢▲ +59.5%3
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%4Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies0¢▼ −56.5%5Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?7¢▼ −55.1%6
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?11¢▼ −54.0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers100¢▲ +62.5%2Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 4, 2026?96¢▲ +59.5%3Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%4Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies0¢▼ −56.5%5Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?7¢▼ −55.1%6Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?11¢▼ −54.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Market 40%AI 92%-53 pp gap
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 78%AI 31%+47 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 61%AI 42%+19 pp gap
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Market 6%AI 18%-12 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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