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Updated 3 hr. ago
Iran leadership change by December 31?
13 %
chance
Iran leadership change by...?
4 outcomes- June 30, 202726 %
- December 3113 %
- November 307 %
- October 312 %
Total volume
$5.3M
24h vol.
$23.5K
1w vol.
$112.6K
1m vol.
$682.6K
Liquidity
$143K
Bid / Ask
12¢ / 13¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
12¢
Start date
Mar 9, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 3 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 3 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 4,874 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 2,187 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 2,688 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 233 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 153 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 80 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 10 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 10 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 0 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 1 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 1 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 1 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 1 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 17,647 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 1,912 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 6,238 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 350 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 1,712 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 205 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 554 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 299 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 25 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 5 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 5,000 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 347 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 200 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 200 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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