Skip to content

← Dashboard · Politics

Updated 3 days ago

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Other
Log in for watchlist

26 %

chance

▲ +1.0%24h▲ +3.5%1W
Yes 26¢No 75¢

Iran leadership change by...?

4 outcomes

Total volume

$433.3K

24h vol.

$4.5K

1w vol.

$66.4K

1m vol.

$116.2K

Liquidity

$74.3K

Bid / Ask

25¢ / 26¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

24¢

Start date

Jun 29, 2026

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
24¢$456
23¢$25,209
22¢$61,816
21¢$29,861
20¢$2,601
19¢$1,205
18¢$5,000
17¢$5,205
15¢$253
13¢$950
Asks (sell)Size
25¢$2,494
26¢$7,766
27¢$555
31¢$200
32¢$298
33¢$200
34¢$200
35¢$200
38¢$435
40¢$200

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 3%Sells 97%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 days agoSell24¢128
3 days agoBuy24¢128
3 days agoBuy25¢200
3 days agoSell25¢200
3 days agoSell75¢6
3 days agoSell25¢6
3 days agoSell25¢801
3 days agoBuy25¢80
3 days agoBuy25¢200
3 days agoSell75¢521
3 days agoBuy24¢44
3 days agoSell24¢44
4 days agoSell76¢4,000
4 days agoSell24¢4,000
4 days agoBuy77¢26
4 days agoBuy23¢26
4 days agoBuy24¢83
4 days agoSell24¢83
4 days agoSell76¢550
4 days agoSell24¢550
4 days agoSell24¢15,486
4 days agoSell76¢76
4 days agoSell76¢5,404
4 days agoSell76¢10,000
4 days agoSell75¢6
4 days agoBuy26¢77
4 days agoSell26¢77
4 days agoBuy26¢77
4 days agoSell26¢77
4 days agoSell74¢455
4 days agoSell26¢455
4 days agoSell75¢110
4 days agoSell25¢110
4 days agoSell25¢91
4 days agoBuy25¢80
4 days agoBuy25¢11
4 days agoSell75¢30
4 days agoSell25¢30
4 days agoSell26¢1,052
4 days agoSell75¢400
4 days agoSell75¢482
4 days agoSell71¢170
4 days agoSell71¢30
4 days agoBuy71¢30
4 days agoSell71¢1,562
4 days agoBuy70¢525
4 days agoSell30¢138
4 days agoSell29¢200
4 days agoSell29¢13
4 days agoSell28¢451

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.