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Updated 29 min. ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?

PoliticsGeopoliticsWorld

73 %

chance

▲ +1.0%1h▼ −4.0%24h▲ +10.5%1W
Yes 73¢No 28¢

Market brief

  • Up 10.5 pp over the past week (−4.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 61% on Nov 8, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 20 buys, 30 sells; the largest was $12.4K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,394 cases). That is less often than their average price of 73% implied — prices in this range have run high.
  • Scheduled to end in 1 mo. (Dec 16, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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50%
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The AI's estimate

The AI and the market agree
Market
73%
AI
74%

sonar · analysed 1 day ago

Market was at 77% when this was analysed (−4 pp since).

From the daily AI research

The market prices YES at 76.5%, and the recent rise of roughly 24.5 points in seven days reflects strong conviction, but the available latest reporting is materially conflicting: some market coverage describes ongoing low-level exchanges and launches, while another tracker says the war has resumed and no ceasefire is in force.[2][7] The technical rules are narrower than the title, excluding many hostile actions, but a single attributed Israeli or Iranian air or surface-to-surface missile impact on terrestrial territory would be enough for NO. Starting from 76.5%, the evidence supports a modest downward adjustment of 2.5 percentage points because of reported November 12–13 military activity and the lack of a clearly authoritative resolution source; the resulting 74% estimate remains close to the market, with low confidence because the evidence is conflicting and the deadline is still more than a month away.

Read the full summary

The 68.9% historical YES rate for comparable 65–85% markets provides a cautionary base-rate check but is not specific enough to override the market or the event evidence.

Two of the key facts

  • The market's official Polymarket data identifies the question, a December 16, 2026 end date, and no separately populated resolution-source field; the description instead designates official Israeli and Iranian government or military information and credible reporting. [1]
  • Recent market-context sources place YES around 72%–78% on November 10–13 and report a rise from roughly 52% one week earlier, broadly consistent with the supplied 76.5% snapshot and strong recent momentum. [2][4][8]

Resolution risk: high — the rules leave real room for interpretation.

Bull and bear case, the remaining facts and the full resolution analysis come with a plan.

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Sources, key facts and what would change the call.

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

7 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$870.1K

24h vol.

$108.8K

Liquidity

$67.3K

End date

Dec 16, 2026

ends in 1 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProThe latest daily analysis in full: probability, bull and bear case, 6 key facts from 10 sources.
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  • Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$475.1K

1m vol.

$870.1K

Bid / Ask

72¢ / 73¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

73¢

Start date

Oct 28, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
72¢$2,264
71¢$6,056
70¢$7,666
69¢$2,174
68¢$1,302
67¢$8,916
65¢$2,000
64¢$2,000
63¢$238
59¢$5
Asks (sell)Size
73¢$282
74¢$15,655
75¢$18,176
76¢$7,571
77¢$2,178
78¢$1,700
79¢$45
80¢$1,276
81¢$2,362
82¢$833

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 20%Sells 80%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
48 min. agoBuy73¢450
51 min. agoBuy73¢37
1 hr. agoBuy72¢1,665
1 hr. agoBuy73¢1
1 hr. agoBuy73¢9
5 hr. agoBuy72¢240
5 hr. agoSell71¢252
6 hr. agoSell70¢50
6 hr. agoSell71¢50
6 hr. agoSell71¢50
6 hr. agoSell71¢50
6 hr. agoBuy72¢176
6 hr. agoBuy72¢418
6 hr. agoBuy72¢374
6 hr. agoBuy72¢543
6 hr. agoBuy72¢69
6 hr. agoBuy72¢3,498
6 hr. agoSell68¢845
6 hr. agoBuy69¢24
6 hr. agoSell68¢40
6 hr. agoSell69¢30
6 hr. agoSell70¢101
6 hr. agoSell69¢40
6 hr. agoSell70¢10
6 hr. agoBuy71¢264
6 hr. agoBuy72¢321
6 hr. agoSell71¢341
6 hr. agoSell72¢44,591
6 hr. agoSell71¢21
6 hr. agoSell71¢50
6 hr. agoSell71¢941
6 hr. agoSell71¢100
7 hr. agoBuy74¢2,667
7 hr. agoSell73¢10
7 hr. agoBuy74¢641
7 hr. agoSell73¢50
7 hr. agoSell73¢50
7 hr. agoSell75¢10,069
7 hr. agoSell73¢52
7 hr. agoSell73¢131
9 hr. agoBuy76¢2,489
9 hr. agoBuy76¢200
9 hr. agoBuy75¢984
9 hr. agoSell75¢50
9 hr. agoSell75¢400
10 hr. agoSell76¢301
10 hr. agoSell76¢6
10 hr. agoSell76¢50
10 hr. agoSell77¢50
10 hr. agoSell77¢50
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Event:
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

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