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Updated 1 wk. ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
62 %
chance
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
5 outcomes- October 2198 %
- October 3188 %
- November 1571 %
- November 3062 %
- December 3151 %
Total volume
$595.6K
24h vol.
$10.8K
1w vol.
$59.8K
1m vol.
$327.1K
Liquidity
$55.4K
Bid / Ask
61¢ / 62¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
62¢
Start date
Aug 26, 2026
End date
Nov 30, 2026
ends in 1 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 8 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 8 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 64¢ | 114 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 36¢ | 114 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 319 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 7 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 312 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 36¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 36¢ | 2,400 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 39 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 312 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 322 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 64¢ | 100 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 117 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 64¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 1,500 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 105 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 5 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 63¢ | 20 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 63¢ | 80 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 20 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 63¢ | 20 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 38¢ | 100 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 100 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 38¢ | 247 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 38¢ | 5 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 142 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 62¢ | 100 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 13 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 13 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 17 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 17 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 224 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 61¢ | 121 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 39¢ | 103 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 230 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 200 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 42¢ | 30 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 42¢ | 40 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 42¢ | 30 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 43¢ | 10 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 41¢ | 60 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 60 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 284 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 56¢ | 284 |
| 1 wk. ago | Sell | 58¢ | 920 |
| 1 wk. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 275 |
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