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Updated 2 mo. ago

Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

PoliticsGeopoliticsTechWorld

0 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.3%1W
Yes 0¢No 100¢
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Market brief

  • At 0%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
  • Last 24 trades: 21 buys, 3 sells; the largest was $18 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (602 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 3 wk. (Dec 1, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

✦ AI assessment

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Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

11 outcomes
See all 11 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$2.4K

24h vol.

$100

Liquidity

$6K

End date

Dec 1, 2026

ends in 3 wk.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$317.68

1m vol.

$1.6K

Bid / Ask

0¢ / 0¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

0¢

Start date

Sep 18, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
0¢$300
0¢$1,428
Asks (sell)Size
1¢$14
6¢$40
6¢$13
70¢$11
70¢$595
70¢$300
70¢$6
74¢$40
80¢$5
80¢$250

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (24)

Buys 83%Sells 17%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell1¢20
2 mo. agoBuy1¢20
2 mo. agoBuy100¢5
2 mo. agoBuy0¢3
2 mo. agoBuy0¢2
2 mo. agoBuy100¢5
2 mo. agoBuy0¢5
2 mo. agoBuy90¢20
2 mo. agoBuy10¢20
2 mo. agoSell5¢15
2 mo. agoBuy5¢15
2 mo. agoSell2¢5
2 mo. agoBuy2¢5
2 mo. agoBuy97¢10
2 mo. agoBuy2¢6
2 mo. agoBuy5¢4
2 mo. agoBuy95¢11
2 mo. agoBuy5¢11
2 mo. agoBuy95¢5
2 mo. agoBuy5¢5
2 mo. agoBuy95¢15
2 mo. agoBuy5¢15
2 mo. agoBuy95¢5
2 mo. agoBuy5¢5
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Event:
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?
Resolution source:
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Note:
Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).

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