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Updated 4 min. ago

Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

PoliticsGeopoliticsTechWorld

28 %

chance

▼ −0.5%24h▲ +10.0%1W
Yes 28¢No 72¢

Market brief

  • Up 10.0 pp over the past week, after dipping to 18% on Nov 4, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 31 buys, 19 sells; the largest was $7.74K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 23% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (192 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

10 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$108.8K

24h vol.

$32.1K

Liquidity

$32.5K

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$35K

1m vol.

$100.4K

Bid / Ask

27¢ / 29¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

30¢

Start date

Jul 13, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
27¢$180
26¢$970
25¢$450
24¢$1,739
22¢$183
21¢$193
20¢$325
19¢$200
18¢$200
17¢$1,883
Asks (sell)Size
29¢$300
30¢$1,275
31¢$100
32¢$1,578
37¢$108
50¢$20
63¢$14
71¢$1,582
72¢$1,249
74¢$2,783

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 68%Sells 32%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
13 hr. agoBuy30¢10,100
13 hr. agoSell28¢69
13 hr. agoSell28¢1
13 hr. agoBuy26¢19
13 hr. agoBuy29¢11,000
13 hr. agoSell28¢20
13 hr. agoSell29¢20
13 hr. agoSell29¢10,900
14 hr. agoSell28¢1
14 hr. agoSell28¢1
1 day agoBuy32¢0
1 day agoBuy32¢7
1 day agoSell23¢0
1 day agoBuy32¢0
1 day agoBuy28¢395
1 day agoBuy30¢7
1 day agoBuy30¢40
1 day agoBuy32¢13
1 day agoBuy32¢7
1 day agoBuy30¢21
1 day agoBuy30¢13
2 days agoBuy31¢0
2 days agoBuy31¢11
2 days agoSell26¢20
2 days agoBuy23¢9
2 days agoSell26¢24
2 days agoBuy24¢0
2 days agoBuy23¢2,129
2 days agoBuy23¢38
2 days agoBuy23¢89
2 days agoBuy21¢6
6 days agoSell16¢10
1 wk. agoBuy19¢20
1 wk. agoSell15¢6
1 wk. agoSell18¢7
1 wk. agoSell18¢6
1 wk. agoSell18¢7
1 wk. agoSell18¢7
2 wk. agoSell20¢20
2 wk. agoBuy20¢20
2 wk. agoBuy19¢70
2 wk. agoBuy19¢13
2 wk. agoSell16¢50
2 wk. agoBuy17¢30
2 wk. agoBuy20¢5
2 wk. agoBuy20¢45
2 wk. agoBuy17¢42
2 wk. agoBuy17¢7
2 wk. agoSell16¢10
3 wk. agoBuy17¢10
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Event:
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

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