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Updated 2 mo. ago

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?

PoliticsEconomy

4 %

chance

▲ +0.4%1h▼ −0.3%24h▲ +1.0%1W
Yes 4¢No 96¢
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Market brief

  • Last 50 trades: 27 buys, 23 sells; the largest was $619 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (602 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Dec 31, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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✦ AI assessment

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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

16 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$12.8K

24h vol.

$20

Liquidity

$738.217

End date

Dec 31, 2026

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$202.81

1m vol.

$573.651

Bid / Ask

2¢ / 6¢

Spread 4¢

Last trade

8¢

Start date

Sep 21, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
4¢$154
3¢$256
3¢$211
3¢$22
3¢$820
3¢$7,442
3¢$50
3¢$220
3¢$318
3¢$1,640
Asks (sell)Size
5¢$10
5¢$60
5¢$184
5¢$1,050
5¢$1,000
5¢$2,006
5¢$50
5¢$211
5¢$1,473
6¢$10,000

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 39%Sells 61%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell4¢184
2 mo. agoBuy4¢184
2 mo. agoSell4¢22
2 mo. agoBuy4¢22
2 mo. agoSell4¢5
2 mo. agoSell96¢5
2 mo. agoBuy4¢90
2 mo. agoSell4¢90
2 mo. agoSell4¢645
2 mo. agoSell96¢645
2 mo. agoSell4¢35
2 mo. agoSell96¢35
2 mo. agoSell4¢50
2 mo. agoSell96¢50
2 mo. agoSell4¢1,582
2 mo. agoSell96¢126
2 mo. agoBuy4¢50
2 mo. agoBuy4¢100
2 mo. agoBuy4¢150
2 mo. agoBuy4¢150
2 mo. agoBuy4¢431
2 mo. agoBuy5¢211
2 mo. agoBuy5¢50
2 mo. agoBuy5¢50
2 mo. agoBuy5¢50
2 mo. agoBuy5¢215
2 mo. agoBuy96¢100
2 mo. agoSell96¢100
2 mo. agoBuy95¢100
2 mo. agoBuy5¢100
2 mo. agoSell5¢458
2 mo. agoBuy5¢358
2 mo. agoBuy5¢50
2 mo. agoBuy5¢50
2 mo. agoSell5¢19
2 mo. agoBuy5¢19
2 mo. agoSell5¢99
2 mo. agoBuy5¢64
2 mo. agoBuy5¢35
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoSell6¢20
2 mo. agoBuy6¢15
2 mo. agoSell6¢15
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoSell6¢13
2 mo. agoSell6¢7
2 mo. agoBuy6¢23
2 mo. agoSell6¢23
2 mo. agoBuy6¢20
2 mo. agoSell6¢20
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Event:
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Resolution source:
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

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