Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?

Market brief

• Down 4.4 pp over the past week, after touching 16% on Nov 6, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 23 buys, 27 sells; the largest was $1.42K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
• Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Dec 31, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

• Treasury yields: two different numbers wearing one priceResearch library · Macro
• How to read prediction market oddsGuide

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• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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