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Updated 1 wk. ago

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?

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93 %

chance

▲ +0.2%1h▲ +0.0%24h▼ −6.4%1W
Yes 93¢No 7¢

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

4 outcomes

Total volume

$19.8K

24h vol.

$50

1w vol.

$6.4K

1m vol.

$19.8K

Liquidity

$7.9K

Bid / Ask

92¢ / 94¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

92¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
91¢$590
90¢$324
88¢$50
87¢$131
86¢$800
85¢$103
75¢$11
74¢$100
68¢$6
61¢$8
Asks (sell)Size
93¢$10
94¢$432
95¢$270
96¢$10
97¢$66
98¢$5,907
99¢$910

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 86%Sells 14%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 wk. agoBuy9¢11
1 wk. agoSell9¢11
1 wk. agoBuy90¢493
1 wk. agoBuy10¢222
1 wk. agoBuy10¢5
1 wk. agoSell90¢100
1 wk. agoSell90¢115
1 wk. agoBuy10¢51
1 wk. agoSell87¢31
1 wk. agoSell13¢31
1 wk. agoSell87¢20
1 wk. agoSell13¢20
1 wk. agoSell10¢50
1 wk. agoBuy10¢50
1 wk. agoSell11¢50
1 wk. agoBuy11¢50
1 wk. agoSell10¢50
1 wk. agoSell90¢50
1 wk. agoSell11¢50
1 wk. agoBuy11¢50
1 wk. agoBuy85¢2,066
1 wk. agoBuy14¢50
1 wk. agoBuy14¢50
1 wk. agoBuy14¢800
1 wk. agoBuy15¢180
1 wk. agoBuy16¢135
1 wk. agoBuy16¢50
1 wk. agoBuy16¢50
1 wk. agoBuy16¢220
1 wk. agoSell84¢100
1 wk. agoBuy17¢128
1 wk. agoBuy17¢54
1 wk. agoBuy17¢123
1 wk. agoSell83¢76
1 wk. agoBuy18¢50
1 wk. agoSell80¢10
1 wk. agoBuy80¢10
1 wk. agoSell81¢10
1 wk. agoBuy81¢10
1 wk. agoSell81¢2
1 wk. agoBuy81¢2
1 wk. agoBuy82¢10
1 wk. agoBuy18¢10
1 wk. agoBuy82¢59
1 wk. agoBuy18¢59
1 wk. agoSell81¢8
1 wk. agoBuy81¢8
1 wk. agoSell79¢57
1 wk. agoBuy79¢57
1 wk. agoSell77¢8

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A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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