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Updated 11 hr. ago

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?

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71 %

chance

▲ +9.0%1h▼ −0.5%24h▲ +13.0%1W
Yes 71¢No 30¢

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

4 outcomes

Total volume

$27.7K

24h vol.

$4K

1w vol.

$18.2K

1m vol.

$27.7K

Liquidity

$1.1K

Bid / Ask

69¢ / 72¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

65¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 5¢
Bids (buy)Size
67¢$45
66¢$100
65¢$41
53¢$50
52¢$35
51¢$16
50¢$358
47¢$11
36¢$40
35¢$256
Asks (sell)Size
72¢$651
73¢$211
75¢$28
82¢$389
85¢$210
87¢$729
90¢$278
96¢$16
97¢$939
98¢$10

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 75%Sells 25%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
11 hr. agoBuy65¢610
11 hr. agoBuy28¢4
11 hr. agoBuy29¢24
11 hr. agoBuy30¢51
11 hr. agoSell70¢9
11 hr. agoSell68¢54
11 hr. agoBuy35¢50
11 hr. agoBuy35¢73
11 hr. agoBuy36¢100
11 hr. agoBuy37¢50
11 hr. agoBuy37¢50
11 hr. agoSell63¢45
11 hr. agoBuy37¢100
17 hr. agoBuy59¢22
17 hr. agoBuy41¢21
17 hr. agoSell59¢1
17 hr. agoBuy59¢53
17 hr. agoSell59¢53
17 hr. agoBuy61¢75
17 hr. agoBuy39¢75
18 hr. agoBuy42¢5
18 hr. agoSell42¢5
20 hr. agoSell41¢204
20 hr. agoSell59¢124
20 hr. agoBuy41¢50
20 hr. agoSell59¢30
21 hr. agoSell57¢50
21 hr. agoBuy56¢20
21 hr. agoBuy57¢30
21 hr. agoBuy30¢722
21 hr. agoBuy70¢124
21 hr. agoBuy70¢250
21 hr. agoBuy70¢50
21 hr. agoBuy70¢54
21 hr. agoBuy70¢50
21 hr. agoSell30¢60
21 hr. agoSell29¢36
21 hr. agoSell29¢28
21 hr. agoSell29¢70
21 hr. agoBuy32¢244
21 hr. agoBuy68¢50
21 hr. agoSell32¢100
21 hr. agoSell31¢94
22 hr. agoBuy29¢189
22 hr. agoSell29¢40
22 hr. agoBuy71¢99
22 hr. agoSell29¢50
22 hr. agoBuy29¢10
22 hr. agoSell29¢10
22 hr. agoSell28¢30

◆ Smart money

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A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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