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Updated 3 wk. ago

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?

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10 %

chance

▲ +2.0%1h▼ −2.5%24h▼ −13.0%1W
Yes 10¢No 91¢

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

4 outcomes

Total volume

$17.1K

24h vol.

$1.2K

1w vol.

$7.7K

1m vol.

$17.4K

Liquidity

$1.6K

Bid / Ask

8¢ / 11¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

9¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,182 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 13.7% resolved YES. That is 4.0 points more often than their average price of 9.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
29¢$627
28¢$261
27¢$22
23¢$30
21¢$38
20¢$21
12¢$100
3¢$25
2¢$54
1¢$14
Asks (sell)Size
30¢$1,034
31¢$251
32¢$167
33¢$30
35¢$30
93¢$9
94¢$67
98¢$33
99¢$26

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (8)

Buys 100%Sells 0%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 wk. agoBuy71¢20
3 wk. agoBuy29¢8
3 wk. agoBuy29¢12
3 wk. agoBuy71¢28
3 wk. agoBuy29¢8
3 wk. agoBuy29¢20
3 wk. agoBuy30¢30
3 wk. agoBuy70¢30

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