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Updated 1 day ago

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?

Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?

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81 %

chance

▼ −8.0%24h▼ −7.0%1W
Yes 81¢No 19¢

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

4 outcomes

Total volume

$25.9K

24h vol.

$3.3K

1w vol.

$16.6K

1m vol.

$25.9K

Liquidity

$1.2K

Bid / Ask

79¢ / 82¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

79¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
80¢$100
79¢$170
73¢$11
72¢$10
71¢$10
63¢$35
62¢$10
60¢$90
56¢$9
35¢$285
Asks (sell)Size
82¢$671
83¢$2,320
84¢$620
89¢$73
90¢$221
92¢$5
93¢$77
94¢$103
95¢$400
96¢$445

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 75%Sells 25%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 day agoBuy13¢215
1 day agoSell13¢100
1 day agoSell13¢65
1 day agoSell13¢50
1 day agoBuy12¢101
1 day agoSell12¢51
1 day agoSell12¢50
1 day agoBuy11¢19
1 day agoSell11¢19
1 day agoSell11¢10
1 day agoBuy11¢10
1 day agoBuy90¢150
1 day agoBuy10¢19
1 day agoBuy10¢80
1 day agoBuy10¢51
1 day agoBuy86¢596
1 day agoBuy12¢20
1 day agoBuy13¢150
1 day agoBuy13¢75
1 day agoBuy13¢50
1 day agoBuy13¢100
1 day agoBuy15¢50
1 day agoBuy15¢20
1 day agoBuy15¢100
1 day agoSell84¢31
2 days agoSell80¢0
2 days agoBuy80¢0
2 days agoSell20¢90
2 days agoBuy20¢50
2 days agoSell80¢40
2 days agoSell79¢8
2 days agoSell21¢8
2 days agoSell79¢9
2 days agoSell21¢9
2 days agoSell20¢50
2 days agoSell80¢50
2 days agoBuy15¢45
2 days agoSell16¢16
2 days agoBuy85¢13
2 days agoBuy85¢9
2 days agoSell14¢7
2 days agoSell86¢11
2 days agoSell14¢3
2 days agoBuy86¢8
2 days agoSell87¢39
2 days agoSell13¢39
2 days agoBuy11¢50
2 days agoBuy89¢50
2 days agoBuy10¢151
2 days agoBuy90¢50

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