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Updated 8 hr. ago

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

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83 %

chance

▲ +2.0%1h▲ +13.5%24h▼ −10.0%1W
Yes 83¢No 18¢

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

9 outcomes
See all 9 outcomes

Total volume

$25.7K

24h vol.

$2K

1w vol.

$12.7K

1m vol.

$25.7K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

81¢ / 84¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

84¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Nov 1, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
81¢$286
80¢$1,194
79¢$20
78¢$140
73¢$70
72¢$119
67¢$90
66¢$400
65¢$16
64¢$5
Asks (sell)Size
84¢$13
85¢$30
86¢$539
87¢$321
88¢$947
89¢$360
92¢$30
93¢$231
94¢$310
96¢$191

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 48%Sells 52%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
9 hr. agoBuy84¢15
9 hr. agoSell84¢15
9 hr. agoSell16¢15
9 hr. agoBuy16¢15
9 hr. agoSell19¢36
9 hr. agoSell81¢36
9 hr. agoSell19¢60
9 hr. agoSell81¢60
10 hr. agoSell80¢311
10 hr. agoSell20¢311
10 hr. agoSell21¢344
10 hr. agoBuy20¢20
10 hr. agoBuy21¢51
10 hr. agoBuy21¢20
10 hr. agoBuy21¢120
10 hr. agoSell79¢20
10 hr. agoSell79¢80
10 hr. agoBuy22¢13
10 hr. agoSell78¢20
11 hr. agoBuy75¢256
11 hr. agoBuy25¢52
11 hr. agoSell75¢7
11 hr. agoBuy25¢88
11 hr. agoBuy25¢60
11 hr. agoBuy25¢20
11 hr. agoSell75¢29
11 hr. agoBuy76¢62
11 hr. agoBuy24¢6
11 hr. agoBuy24¢57
11 hr. agoBuy76¢89
11 hr. agoBuy24¢62
11 hr. agoBuy24¢20
11 hr. agoBuy25¢7
19 hr. agoSell26¢7
19 hr. agoSell74¢0
19 hr. agoSell74¢7
20 hr. agoBuy74¢54
20 hr. agoSell74¢17
20 hr. agoSell74¢37
1 day agoBuy71¢315
1 day agoBuy27¢60
1 day agoBuy27¢20
1 day agoSell72¢38
1 day agoBuy30¢20
1 day agoSell70¢19
1 day agoSell70¢158
1 day agoBuy76¢60
1 day agoSell76¢60
1 day agoBuy76¢20
1 day agoSell76¢20

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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