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Updated 4 days ago
Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?
68 %
chance
Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations
11 outcomesTotal volume
$2.3K
24h vol.
$1.5K
1w vol.
$2.3K
1m vol.
$2.3K
Liquidity
$930.211
Bid / Ask
67¢ / 68¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
69¢
Start date
Oct 15, 2026
End date
Mar 15, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 5¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 60¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 8 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 59¢ | 8 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 59¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 40¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 59¢ | 30 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 26 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 26 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 45¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 44¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 45¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 46¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 46¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 45¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 45¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 45¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 45¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 45¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 60¢ | 120 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 61¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 62¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 61¢ | 60 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 61¢ | 60 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 63¢ | 31 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 37¢ | 31 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 63¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 63¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 77¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 77¢ | 40 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 46¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 53¢ | 305 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 12 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 22 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 47¢ | 31 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 47¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 48¢ | 60 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 48¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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