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Updated 1 day ago

Paris curfew by October 24?
7 %
chance
Paris curfew announced by...?
4 outcomes- October 2161 %
- October 319 %
- October 247 %
- October 191 %
Total volume
$9.9K
24h vol.
$9.5K
1w vol.
$9.9K
1m vol.
$9.9K
Liquidity
$71.3K
Bid / Ask
6¢ / 7¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
Oct 18, 2026
End date
Oct 25, 2026
ends in 6 days
How reliable is this price range?
Of 221 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (20)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day ago | Buy | 10¢ | 187 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 45 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 8 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 108 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 9¢ | 30 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 9¢ | 30 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 6¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 6¢ | 30 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 6¢ | 30 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 10¢ | 182 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 182 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 10¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 10¢ | 33 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 90¢ | 33 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 7¢ | 7 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 7 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.