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Updated 11 min. ago
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics
24 %
chance
▲ +2.0%1h▲ +7.0%24h▲ +3.0%1W
Yes 24¢No 77¢
Market brief
- Up 3.0 pp over the past week (+7.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 17% on Oct 24, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 43 buys, 7 sells; the largest was $485 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Scheduled to end in 8 hr. (Oct 26, 2026).
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Brazil Presidential Election
2 outcomes- Flávio Bolsonaro77 %
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva24 %
Total volume
$31.8M
24h vol.
$1.9M
1w vol.
$5.5M
1m vol.
$19.6M
Liquidity
$333.4K
Bid / Ask
23¢ / 24¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
24¢
Start date
Sep 18, 2025
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 8 hr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+There is a current smart-money reading on this market: how the wallets whose record holds up are positioned.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Bids (buy)Size
23¢$19,169
22¢$37,325
21¢$8,406
20¢$22,950
19¢$74,981
18¢$63,145
17¢$10,050
16¢$6,729
15¢$9,136
14¢$15,979
Asks (sell)Size
24¢$8,510
25¢$13,523
26¢$18,983
27¢$12,547
28¢$19,823
29¢$21,886
30¢$16,416
31¢$18,812
32¢$831
33¢$6,139
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
Buys 78%Sells 22%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 min. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 130 |
| 16 min. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 200 |
| 16 min. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 20 |
| 16 min. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 75 |
| 17 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 696 |
| 17 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 2,000 |
| 17 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 43 |
| 17 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 100 |
| 17 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 79 |
| 18 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 1,087 |
| 19 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 79 |
| 19 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 200 |
| 19 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 87 |
| 20 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 13 |
| 20 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 79 |
| 20 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 16 |
| 21 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 5 |
| 21 min. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 13 |
| 21 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 600 |
| 21 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 72 |
| 21 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 51 |
| 21 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 87 |
| 21 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 200 |
| 23 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 32 |
| 23 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 60 |
| 24 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 22 |
| 24 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 9 |
| 24 min. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 400 |
| 25 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 435 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 7 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 57 |
| 26 min. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 25 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 9 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 1,300 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 26 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 177 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 331 |
| 26 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 87 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 74 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 21 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 5 |
| 27 min. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 2,204 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 9 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 1,057 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 86 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 22 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 11 |
| 27 min. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 38 |
| 28 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 44 |
| 28 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 233 |
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