Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Market brief

• Up 13.0 pp over the past week (+2.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 67% on Oct 27, 2026.
• Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% one day before the end resolved YES (3,508 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 3,508 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% one day before resolution, 68.9% resolved YES. That is 4.5 points less often than their average price of 73.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

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• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.

• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
• Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?37 %▲ +2.5%
• Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?25 %▼ −5.0%
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −2.0%

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