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Updated 21 min. ago

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Politics
Watch this market

33 %

chance

▲ +1.0%24h▼ −4.0%1W
Yes 33¢No 68¢

Market brief

  • Down 4.0 pp over the past week (+1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 38% on Oct 18, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 45 buys, 5 sells; the largest was $684 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 22% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (156 cases).
  • Scheduled to end in 2 wk. (Nov 4, 2026).

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

2 outcomes

Total volume

$3.6M

24h vol.

$233.6K

1w vol.

$732.7K

1m vol.

$1.6M

Liquidity

$3.2M

Bid / Ask

32¢ / 33¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

33¢

Start date

Jul 11, 2025

End date

Nov 4, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 156 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 21.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
  • Smart moneyPro+There is a current smart-money reading on this market: how the wallets whose record holds up are positioned.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
32¢$16,415
31¢$211,285
30¢$175,984
29¢$607,851
28¢$1,718
27¢$400
25¢$450,000
24¢$1,010
20¢$1,210
19¢$5,000
Asks (sell)Size
33¢$20,690
34¢$698,054
35¢$3,244,901
36¢$14,896
37¢$33,988
38¢$19,533
39¢$12,125
40¢$13,821
41¢$5,508
42¢$75

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 81%Sells 19%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
30 min. agoBuy33¢130
31 min. agoBuy33¢1,136
54 min. agoBuy33¢142
1 hr. agoSell32¢982
1 hr. agoBuy33¢28
1 hr. agoBuy33¢6
1 hr. agoBuy33¢135
1 hr. agoBuy33¢146
1 hr. agoBuy33¢16
1 hr. agoBuy33¢61
1 hr. agoBuy33¢564
1 hr. agoBuy33¢289
1 hr. agoBuy33¢1,765
1 hr. agoBuy33¢107
1 hr. agoBuy33¢42
1 hr. agoBuy33¢281
1 hr. agoBuy33¢70
1 hr. agoBuy33¢562
1 hr. agoBuy33¢28
1 hr. agoBuy33¢14
1 hr. agoBuy33¢8
1 hr. agoBuy33¢825
1 hr. agoBuy33¢14
2 hr. agoBuy33¢5
2 hr. agoBuy33¢4
2 hr. agoBuy33¢140
2 hr. agoBuy33¢70
2 hr. agoBuy33¢28
2 hr. agoSell32¢1,006
2 hr. agoBuy33¢14
2 hr. agoBuy33¢140
2 hr. agoSell32¢281
2 hr. agoSell32¢2
2 hr. agoBuy33¢138
2 hr. agoBuy33¢152
2 hr. agoBuy33¢28
2 hr. agoBuy33¢28
2 hr. agoBuy33¢41
2 hr. agoBuy33¢14
2 hr. agoBuy33¢70
2 hr. agoBuy33¢37
2 hr. agoBuy33¢1,369
2 hr. agoBuy33¢28
2 hr. agoBuy33¢206
3 hr. agoBuy33¢125
3 hr. agoSell32¢6
3 hr. agoBuy33¢275
3 hr. agoBuy33¢14
3 hr. agoBuy33¢70
3 hr. agoBuy33¢70

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