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Updated 13 min. ago
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
26 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 8.0 pp over the past week (−3.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 34% on Oct 27, 2026.
- Historically, 30% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before the end resolved YES (134 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).
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Texas Senate Election Winner
2 outcomes- James Talarico (D)74 %
- Ken Paxton (R)26 %
Total volume
$7.8M
24h vol.
$1.4M
1w vol.
$3.9M
1m vol.
$6.9M
Liquidity
$929.4K
Bid / Ask
25¢ / 26¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
25¢
Start date
Oct 13, 2025
End date
Nov 4, 2026
ends in 1 day
How reliable is this price range?
Of 134 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before resolution, 29.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 23.7%. With this many cases, the difference could still be chance.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
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