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Updated 28 min. ago
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
37 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 6.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 18% on Oct 29, 2026.
- Historically, 50% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% one day before the end resolved YES (131 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Nov 3, 2026).
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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
50 outcomes- None37 %
- IA11 %
- IA, KS6 %
- KS4 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX3 %
- All 73 %
- AK, IA2 %
- IA, KS, ME2 %
- AK2 %
- AK, IA, KS2 %
- ME2 %
- IA, ME2 %
- OH1 %
- IA, KS, OH1 %
- TX1 %
- IA, TX1 %
- IA, KS, TX1 %
- IA, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX1 %
- AK, KS1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- IA, MI1 %
- IA, KS, MI1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH1 %
- AK, IA, KS, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX1 %
- IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX1 %
- KS, OH1 %
- MI1 %
- IA, KS, ME, OH1 %
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX1 %
- AK, TX1 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI1 %
- KS, TX1 %
- AK, KS, TX1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH1 %
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX0 %
- IA, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, OH0 %
- IA, ME, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH0 %
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH0 %
- IA, KS, MI, TX0 %
- AK, IA, KS, ME0 %
Total volume
$5.8M
24h vol.
$3.2M
1w vol.
$5.8M
1m vol.
$5.8M
Liquidity
$1.4M
Bid / Ask
36¢ / 37¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
36¢
Start date
Oct 26, 2026
End date
Nov 3, 2026
ends in 21 hr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 131 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% one day before resolution, 49.6% resolved YES. Their average price was 47.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0xa32317ba83c3c83dc43ef260c3744c22ed8000db53d30bc09372c45cff5fb07a&limit=50&takerOnly=true
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House6 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?95 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?24 %▼ −5.0%
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0 %▲ +0.1%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?27 %▼ −2.0%
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?79 %▲ +0.0%
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