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Updated 14 min. ago
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
20 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 12.5 pp over the past week (−2.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 33% on Oct 27, 2026.
- Historically, 30% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before the end resolved YES (134 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).
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Michigan Senate Election Winner
2 outcomes- Abdul El-Sayed (D)81 %
- Mike Rogers (R)20 %
Total volume
$3.8M
24h vol.
$667K
1w vol.
$2.6M
1m vol.
$3.2M
Liquidity
$516.9K
Bid / Ask
19¢ / 20¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
20¢
Start date
Oct 13, 2025
End date
Nov 4, 2026
ends in 1 day
How reliable is this price range?
Of 134 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before resolution, 29.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 23.7%. With this many cases, the difference could still be chance.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x3fd189cac9280dfc49a07115581e8d4c9e0b7e1c1e8580a44e9ff3d74e39cf2d&limit=50&takerOnly=true
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The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
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- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?24 %▼ −5.0%
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?26 %▼ −2.0%
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