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Updated 10 min. ago
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
75 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 8.0 pp over the past week (+1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 67% on Oct 27, 2026.
- Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% one day before the end resolved YES (3,508 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).
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Texas Senate Election Winner
2 outcomes- James Talarico (D)75 %
- Ken Paxton (R)26 %
Total volume
$5.1M
24h vol.
$801.8K
1w vol.
$2.3M
1m vol.
$4.2M
Liquidity
$1.2M
Bid / Ask
74¢ / 75¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
75¢
Start date
Oct 13, 2025
End date
Nov 4, 2026
ends in 1 day
How reliable is this price range?
Of 3,508 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% one day before resolution, 68.9% resolved YES. That is 4.5 points less often than their average price of 73.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+There is a current smart-money reading on this market: how the wallets whose record holds up are positioned.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
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