Updated 2 days ago
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?
9 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 5.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 19% on Nov 9, 2026.
- Historically, 12% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before the end resolved YES (133 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 3 days (Nov 14, 2026).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Elon Musk # tweets November 12 - November 14, 2026?
10 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$1.4K
24h vol.
$1.3K
Liquidity
$3.2K
End date
Nov 14, 2026
ends in 3 days
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$1.4K
Bid / Ask
8¢ / 9¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
9¢
Start date
Nov 9, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 20¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (4)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 30 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 13¢ | 80 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 9 |
| 2 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 10 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 12 12:00 PM ET to November 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
- Event:
- Elon Musk # tweets November 12 - November 14, 2026?
- Resolution source:
- https://x.com/elonmusk
- Note:
- Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).
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