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Updated 2 wk. ago

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
19 %
chance
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
7 outcomesTotal volume
$1.2M
24h vol.
$11.098
1w vol.
$446.098
1m vol.
$12.2K
Liquidity
$32.1K
Bid / Ask
18¢ / 19¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
18¢
Start date
Nov 27, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 220 resolved Polymarket Crypto markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 23.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 582 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 19 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 563 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 45 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 45 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 156 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 26 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 6 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 6 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 300 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 81¢ | 300 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 82¢ | 24 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 24 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 82¢ | 12 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 12 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 765 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 735 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 30 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 54,946 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 13,268 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 150 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 14 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 11 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 25 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 150 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 30,000 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 1,800 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 150 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 952 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 46 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 1,500 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 79¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 20 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 245 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 765 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 300 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 22¢ | 45 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 4,000 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 77¢ | 295 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 82¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 82¢ | 80 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 77¢ | 5,000 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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