What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? odds
Live implied probabilities across 15 outcomes · $7.2M traded · updated 10 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
4.25% leads at 85 % · biggest 24h move: 4.0% −13.5 pp
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026??
- 4.25% is the current favourite at 85 %, ahead of 14 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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