Fed Decision in January? odds
Live implied probabilities across 5 outcomes · $2.5M traded · updated 8 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 28, 2027
25 bps increase leads at 51 % · biggest 24h move: 25 bps increase +24.0 pp
Market Guy's AI has analysed 2 of 5 outcomes — 0 disagree with the market.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Fed Decision in January??
- 25 bps increase is the current favourite at 51 %, ahead of 4 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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