Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 4, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

China Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Aryna Sabalenka100¢▲ +84.5%2Matthew Stafford: Retirement — Before the 2027-28 season57¢▲ +84.0%3Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%4Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%5Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%6Will zekken play for MIBR in 2027?86¢▲ +77.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Market 16%AI 59%-43 pp gap US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Market 63%AI 38%+25 pp gap

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 7%AI 28%-21 pp gap

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Market 45%AI 64%-19 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Starknet STRK$0.0529▲ +22.4%Pump.fun PUMP$0.00640468▲ +15.9%Useless Coin USELESS$0.2424▲ +9.3%Axie Infinity AXS$1.39▲ +8.8%The Sandbox SAND$0.0757▼ −5.8%dYdX DYDX$0.1479▼ −5.1%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?11¢

Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?6¢

Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?13¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?37¢

New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.