Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 6, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Kimmer Coppejans vs Nishesh Basavareddy100¢▲ +85.5%2Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%3Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%4Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%5Will zekken play for MIBR in 2027?86¢▲ +77.5%6ATL Falcons vs NO Saints: Total Points — Over 57.5 points99¢▲ +76.0%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 8%AI 68%-60 pp gap Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Market 14%AI 59%-44 pp gap US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Market 73%AI 38%+35 pp gap

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Market 79%AI 58%+21 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Starknet STRK$0.052▼ −12.2%Filecoin FIL$1.17▲ +10.6%Helium HNT$0.5171▼ −9.7%NEAR Protocol NEAR$5.24▲ +8.1%The Sandbox SAND$0.0669▼ −7.6%Fartcoin FARTCOIN$0.1721▼ −6.3%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?48¢

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?43¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?14¢

Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?38¢

New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.