Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Oct 9, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duran100¢▲ +92.6%2Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 song this week?99¢▲ +86.0%3Matthew Stafford: Retirement — Before the 2027-28 season57¢▲ +84.0%4Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%5Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%6
Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios100¢▲ +81.0%
M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duran100¢▲ +92.6%2Will "Nicole Kidman - ADÉLA" be the #2 song this week?99¢▲ +86.0%3Matthew Stafford: Retirement — Before the 2027-28 season57¢▲ +84.0%4Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%5Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%6Antofagasta: Miguel Tobon vs Tomas Barrios100¢▲ +81.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Market 28%AI 59%-31 pp gap
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 51%AI 27%+23 pp gap
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Market 41%AI 61%-20 pp gap
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Market 45%AI 58%-13 pp gap
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 51%AI 27%+23 pp gapWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Market 41%AI 61%-20 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Market 45%AI 58%-13 pp gapBiggest coin moves
The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.
Fresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.