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Updated 4 days ago

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
58 %
chance
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
10 outcomesTotal volume
$781.9K
24h vol.
$2.1K
1w vol.
$27.3K
1m vol.
$407.5K
Liquidity
$93.2K
Bid / Ask
57¢ / 59¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
58¢
Start date
Dec 12, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 183 resolved Polymarket Crypto markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 50.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.7%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 5,000 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 5,000 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 1,000 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 1,000 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 1,000 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 759 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 241 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 12 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 12 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 1,406 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 200 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 241 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 43 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 722 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 203 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 203 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 57¢ | 98 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 98 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 42¢ | 9,278 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 500 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 300 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 300 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 300 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 50 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 11 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 163 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 1,888 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 400 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 2,500 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 237 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 1,000 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 150 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 200 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 862 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 362 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 56 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 44 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 58¢ | 30 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 30 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 59¢ | 29 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 29 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 200 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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