Skip to content

← Dashboard · Crypto

Updated 4 days ago

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Other
Log in for watchlist

58 %

chance

▼ −0.5%24h▼ −0.5%1W
Yes 58¢No 42¢

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

10 outcomes

Total volume

$781.9K

24h vol.

$2.1K

1w vol.

$27.3K

1m vol.

$407.5K

Liquidity

$93.2K

Bid / Ask

57¢ / 59¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

58¢

Start date

Dec 12, 2025

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 183 resolved Polymarket Crypto markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 50.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.7%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
58¢$1,244
57¢$2,923
56¢$4,127
55¢$2,915
54¢$2,589
53¢$2,489
52¢$2,347
51¢$2,157
50¢$1,906
49¢$20,040
Asks (sell)Size
59¢$24,536
60¢$1,731
61¢$20,215
63¢$500
67¢$351
69¢$23
70¢$50,000
76¢$6,308
77¢$15,229
78¢$250

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 94%Sells 6%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
5 days agoBuy42¢5,000
5 days agoBuy58¢5,000
5 days agoBuy42¢1,000
5 days agoBuy58¢1,000
5 days agoBuy42¢1,000
5 days agoBuy58¢759
5 days agoSell42¢241
5 days agoBuy59¢12
5 days agoBuy41¢12
5 days agoBuy58¢1,406
5 days agoBuy42¢200
5 days agoBuy42¢241
5 days agoBuy42¢50
5 days agoBuy42¢50
5 days agoBuy42¢43
5 days agoBuy42¢100
5 days agoBuy42¢722
5 days agoBuy59¢100
5 days agoBuy41¢100
5 days agoBuy59¢203
5 days agoBuy41¢203
5 days agoSell57¢98
5 days agoBuy57¢98
5 days agoBuy42¢9,278
5 days agoBuy58¢500
5 days agoSell42¢300
5 days agoSell42¢300
5 days agoSell42¢300
5 days agoBuy58¢50
5 days agoBuy58¢50
5 days agoBuy58¢11
5 days agoBuy58¢163
5 days agoBuy58¢5
5 days agoBuy58¢1,888
5 days agoSell42¢400
5 days agoBuy58¢2,500
5 days agoSell42¢237
5 days agoBuy58¢1,000
5 days agoBuy58¢150
5 days agoBuy58¢200
5 days agoBuy58¢862
5 days agoBuy58¢362
5 days agoBuy43¢100
5 days agoBuy57¢56
5 days agoBuy57¢44
5 days agoSell58¢30
5 days agoBuy58¢30
5 days agoBuy59¢29
5 days agoBuy41¢29
5 days agoSell41¢200

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Crypto markets from other events.