Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 12, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?100¢▲ +95.2%2

M15 Monastir: Nazim Makhlouf vs Tuncay Duran100¢▲ +92.6%3Buffalo vs Toledo — Buffalo97¢▲ +88.0%4Buffalo vs Toledo — Toledo4¢▼ −88.0%5Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%6

World Championship of Legends: India Champions vs Bangladesh Champions0¢▼ −82.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Market 40%AI 61%-21 pp gap

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Market 59%AI 72%-13 pp gap

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Market 65%AI 58%+7 pp gap Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Market 7%AI 11%-4 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Filecoin FIL$1.24▲ +15.1%Internet Computer ICP$3.46▲ +13.4%Flow FLOW$0.0355▲ +11.8%Useless Coin USELESS$0.2051▲ +11.4%NEAR Protocol NEAR$5.82▲ +11.3%Algorand ALGO$0.1274▲ +8.9%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?37¢

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?10¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House9¢

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?14¢

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