Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Oct 15, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1When will Aaron Rodgers retire? — Before the 2027-28 season96¢▲ +98.0%2Vegas vs Nashville: Spread — Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals92¢▲ +92.0%3
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of October 12 2026?100¢▲ +88.9%4Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?95¢▲ +86.1%5
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $58 Week of October 12 2026?95¢▲ +86.0%6Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of October 12 2026?100¢▲ +88.9%4Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award?95¢▲ +86.1%5Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $58 Week of October 12 2026?95¢▲ +86.0%6Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Market 22%AI 16%+6 pp gap
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Market 45%AI 39%+6 pp gap
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Market 63%AI 58%+5 pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 9%AI 5%+4 pp gapBiggest coin moves
The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.
Fresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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