Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 19, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?91¢▲ +40.5%2

Ethereum Up or Down on October 19?88¢▲ +37.5%3

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?49¢▲ +24.5%4Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Runs — Over 6.5 runs scored71¢▲ +23.0%5

Ningbo Open: Elise Mertens vs Leylah Fernandez77¢▲ +22.0%6Bonzi vs Norrie — Benjamin Bonzi45¢▲ +17.0%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?Market 50%AI 59%-9 pp gap

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Market 19%AI 14%+5 pp gap US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Market 83%AI 78%+5 pp gap

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Market 33%AI 36%-3 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Useless Coin USELESS$0.1425▼ −8.1%Starknet STRK$0.0597▼ −5.5%Arbitrum ARB$0.1925▲ +4.7%Flow FLOW$0.0296▼ −4.2%Pepe PEPE$0.00000404▲ +3.8%Decentraland MANA$0.0841▼ −3.8%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?6¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?8¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?10¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?88¢

New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.