Updated 2 mo. ago

X banned in any European country by December 31?
9 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 3.5 pp over the past week (−1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 12% on Sep 12, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 21 buys, 29 sells; the largest was $200 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Total volume
$14.3K
24h vol.
$2.133
Liquidity
$1K
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$361.489
1m vol.
$437.064
Bid / Ask
6¢ / 11¢
Spread 5¢
Last trade
11¢
Start date
Mar 31, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 204 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 157 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 7 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 3 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 3 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 14 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 14 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 32 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 85¢ | 32 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 17 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 85¢ | 17 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 31 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 23 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 30 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 30 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 230 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 185 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 30 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 16 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 31 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 14 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 7 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 3 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 80¢ | 1 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 1 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- Event:
- X banned in any European country by December 31?
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