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Updated 2 mo. ago

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

PoliticsTechCulture

17 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▲ +0.5%1W
Yes 17¢No 83¢
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Market brief

  • Last 50 trades: 24 buys, 26 sells; the largest was $31 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 23% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (192 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$4.2K

24h vol.

$2

Liquidity

$337.133

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$8

1m vol.

$340.098

Bid / Ask

14¢ / 20¢

Spread 6¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Sep 9, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
10¢$41
8¢$198
4¢$13
3¢$422
2¢$529
1¢$1,796
Asks (sell)Size
11¢$200
12¢$80
20¢$9
21¢$10
22¢$45
94¢$8
96¢$25
98¢$50
99¢$108

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 52%Sells 48%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell89¢26
2 mo. agoSell11¢5
2 mo. agoSell11¢21
2 mo. agoSell90¢22
2 mo. agoSell10¢16
2 mo. agoBuy90¢6
2 mo. agoSell8¢20
2 mo. agoSell93¢0
2 mo. agoBuy8¢20
2 mo. agoSell5¢6
2 mo. agoBuy5¢6
2 mo. agoSell10¢23
2 mo. agoSell90¢4
2 mo. agoBuy10¢19
2 mo. agoSell89¢19
2 mo. agoSell11¢19
2 mo. agoSell10¢32
2 mo. agoBuy10¢11
2 mo. agoBuy10¢21
2 mo. agoSell13¢20
2 mo. agoBuy13¢20
2 mo. agoSell14¢20
2 mo. agoBuy14¢20
2 mo. agoBuy12¢30
2 mo. agoSell12¢10
2 mo. agoSell12¢20
2 mo. agoBuy10¢21
2 mo. agoSell10¢21
2 mo. agoBuy11¢20
2 mo. agoSell11¢0
2 mo. agoSell11¢20
2 mo. agoSell9¢0
2 mo. agoBuy9¢0
2 mo. agoSell90¢0
2 mo. agoSell10¢0
2 mo. agoBuy9¢32
2 mo. agoBuy91¢22
2 mo. agoBuy91¢10
2 mo. agoBuy90¢20
2 mo. agoBuy10¢20
2 mo. agoSell10¢66
2 mo. agoBuy10¢32
2 mo. agoSell90¢14
2 mo. agoBuy10¢20
2 mo. agoBuy10¢1
2 mo. agoSell10¢20
2 mo. agoBuy10¢20
2 mo. agoBuy11¢45
2 mo. agoBuy89¢10
2 mo. agoBuy89¢35
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tristan Buckmaster files a lawsuit against OpenAI, or any of its subsidiaries, executives, or employees, by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lawsuit in which Tristan Buckmaster is a named plaintiff, alone or jointly with others, will qualify. An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event:
Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...?

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