Updated 2 mo. ago

Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?
10 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 4.0 pp over the past week (−1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 50% on Sep 18, 2026.
- Last 25 trades: 20 buys, 5 sells; the largest was $85 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Total volume
$1.4K
24h vol.
$20
Liquidity
$2.8K
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1m vol.
$321.59
Bid / Ask
7¢ / 12¢
Spread 5¢
Last trade
6¢
Start date
Sep 18, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 8¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (25)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 11 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 86¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 85¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 61 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 83¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 17¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 83¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 60 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 76¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 76¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 76¢ | 20 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case concerning artificial intelligence and United States copyright law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify. Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket. The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?
- Resolution source:
- https://www.supremecourt.gov
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