Skip to content

← Politics odds

Updated 2 mo. ago

Will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List by December 31, 2026?

PoliticsTechCulture

11 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▲ +0.5%24h▼ −12.0%1W
Yes 11¢No 90¢
Watch this market

Market brief

  • Down 12.0 pp over the past week, after touching 64% on Sep 17, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 29 buys, 21 sells; the largest was $39 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

What's your number?

Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.

50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.

Result by email

Find out how it ends

One email when this market resolves. No account needed.

We send a confirmation link first. After the result email, we delete your address. Privacy

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

Request analysisPart of every plan · 7 days for $3

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$3.3K

24h vol.

$19.99

Liquidity

$624.395

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$171.99

1m vol.

$507.464

Bid / Ask

10¢ / 11¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

8¢

Start date

Jun 23, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 68¢
Bids (buy)Size
20¢$5
19¢$24
6¢$14
5¢$50
4¢$304
3¢$750
2¢$1,525
1¢$3,606
Asks (sell)Size
88¢$118
89¢$30
93¢$6
94¢$75
95¢$50
97¢$27
98¢$15
99¢$37

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 62%Sells 38%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell19¢15
2 mo. agoSell81¢9
2 mo. agoBuy20¢6
2 mo. agoBuy54¢10
2 mo. agoSell54¢10
2 mo. agoBuy54¢42
2 mo. agoBuy46¢42
2 mo. agoBuy55¢45
2 mo. agoBuy45¢45
2 mo. agoSell10¢88
2 mo. agoBuy10¢88
2 mo. agoBuy55¢48
2 mo. agoBuy45¢48
2 mo. agoBuy45¢40
2 mo. agoBuy55¢40
2 mo. agoSell11¢60
2 mo. agoBuy11¢60
2 mo. agoBuy41¢30
2 mo. agoSell41¢30
2 mo. agoBuy45¢30
2 mo. agoBuy55¢30
2 mo. agoSell38¢82
2 mo. agoBuy38¢82
2 mo. agoBuy47¢82
2 mo. agoSell48¢40
2 mo. agoSell47¢42
2 mo. agoSell22¢30
2 mo. agoSell78¢15
2 mo. agoBuy22¢10
2 mo. agoBuy22¢5
2 mo. agoBuy48¢30
2 mo. agoBuy52¢30
2 mo. agoSell27¢40
2 mo. agoBuy27¢40
2 mo. agoBuy51¢40
2 mo. agoSell51¢40
2 mo. agoSell18¢11
2 mo. agoBuy18¢11
2 mo. agoBuy51¢11
2 mo. agoSell51¢11
2 mo. agoSell24¢42
2 mo. agoBuy23¢12
2 mo. agoBuy24¢30
2 mo. agoSell25¢40
2 mo. agoBuy25¢40
3 mo. agoSell12¢16
3 mo. agoBuy12¢11
3 mo. agoSell88¢5
3 mo. agoSell13¢10
3 mo. agoSell87¢10
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announces that it has reclassified or will reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be official and public. Any rumored or private statements of intention will not qualify. Any announcement that the drug has been reclassified to Category 1 will qualify. Any announcement within this market’s timeframe of future intention to reclassify to Category 1 will qualify regardless of whether the reclassification has happened by the listed date. A qualifying reclassification must be to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List or an equivalent classification that allows interim compounding of the drug. Removal from a different category will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event:
FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?

Related markets

Open Politics markets from other events — closest to this one first.

Keep exploring

Moving today

Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.

Daily Forecast ChallengeThree real markets, one guess each — then see how you compare to the crowd and the AI.