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Updated 2 mo. ago

OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

PoliticsTechCulture

12 %

chance

▼ −1.5%1h▼ −3.0%24h▼ −4.5%1W
Yes 12¢No 89¢
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Market brief

  • Down 4.5 pp over the past week (−3.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 59% on Sep 21, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 28 buys, 22 sells; the largest was $134 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$2.9K

24h vol.

$21

Liquidity

$2.2K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1m vol.

$305.333

Bid / Ask

11¢ / 12¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

12¢

Start date

Jul 24, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 81¢
Bids (buy)Size
13¢$19
10¢$21
9¢$21
5¢$13
4¢$50
3¢$179
2¢$278
1¢$762
Asks (sell)Size
94¢$35
96¢$75
97¢$130
98¢$80
99¢$113

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 59%Sells 41%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell6¢25
2 mo. agoBuy6¢25
2 mo. agoSell7¢24
2 mo. agoSell93¢10
2 mo. agoBuy7¢14
2 mo. agoSell8¢7
2 mo. agoBuy8¢7
2 mo. agoSell11¢9
2 mo. agoBuy11¢9
2 mo. agoSell16¢6
2 mo. agoBuy16¢6
2 mo. agoSell26¢10
2 mo. agoBuy26¢10
2 mo. agoSell27¢7
2 mo. agoSell73¢7
3 mo. agoBuy90¢1
3 mo. agoSell90¢1
4 mo. agoSell69¢20
4 mo. agoSell31¢20
4 mo. agoBuy71¢6
4 mo. agoSell71¢6
4 mo. agoSell21¢30
4 mo. agoSell79¢30
4 mo. agoSell22¢186
4 mo. agoBuy20¢50
4 mo. agoSell78¢87
4 mo. agoBuy23¢21
4 mo. agoBuy23¢27
4 mo. agoSell86¢11
4 mo. agoBuy86¢11
4 mo. agoSell86¢20
4 mo. agoBuy86¢9
4 mo. agoBuy86¢11
4 mo. agoSell86¢29
4 mo. agoBuy86¢9
4 mo. agoBuy86¢20
4 mo. agoSell87¢61
4 mo. agoBuy87¢20
4 mo. agoBuy87¢20
4 mo. agoBuy87¢21
4 mo. agoBuy12¢9
4 mo. agoBuy88¢9
4 mo. agoSell88¢40
4 mo. agoBuy88¢20
4 mo. agoBuy88¢20
4 mo. agoBuy11¢348
4 mo. agoBuy89¢20
4 mo. agoBuy89¢20
4 mo. agoBuy89¢20
4 mo. agoBuy89¢150
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges, files a criminal complaint, or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of OpenAI Foundation, OpenAI Group PBC or any parent, subsidiary, or successor of either entity, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. A qualifying charge need not result in a conviction. This market will resolve to "Yes" even if the charge is later dismissed, reduced, or resolved through a deferred prosecution agreement, so long as it was filed or announced by the date specified above. Charges solely against individuals will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event:
OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?

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